not good news

ht http://deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com/

For agriculture, as for energy, two decades of declining real prices have led to huge underinvestment that is now being revealed by relentless demand pressures. In 2008, the world's urban population equalled the rural for the first time in human history. China also became a net food importer for the first time ever. Overall, world food supply and demand remain precariously balanced. A variety of factors point to serious food shortages emerging over the next decade, with demand for food forecast to double over the next 25 years despite reduced availability of arable land and water. For the first time in history, urban demand for water is outpacing farm demand throughout the world and water tables are falling across key producing regions . Globally, we are losing about one per cent of productive land each year because of degradation and urban sprawl, notably in southern China.

and

Arable land per capita has essentially halved from 0.42 hectares per person in 1961 to 0.22 hectares per person now. Optimists expect innovation to bridge the gap, and it's possible that developments like genetic engineering and smart irrigation may boost productivity, but as international funding for agricultural research has been stagnant in real terms since the early 1970s , I wouldn't bet on it.