more from dad cat bouncing


we began trying to meet demand by increasing yield via fertilizers, irrigation, and better, if more homogenous, seed varieties (one of the downsides of this has been a loss of resilience, as the same varieties are grown worldwide, and 80% of the global wheat planting area is vulnerable to the UG99 wheat fungus, now spreading rapidly in Africa). It worked to the extent that between 1975 and 1986 yields for wheat and rice rose 32% and 51% respectively, the so-called 'green revolution'. However, since then, these techniques have stopped producing increased yields due to adverse feedback effects: you can't spray fertilizer and irrigate fields beyond a certain point without damaging the land, thus reducing yields. Meantime, the shift to a diet higher in animal proteins in Asia, as real income per capita rises, is putting severe pressure on global supplies.

not good news

ht http://deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com/

For agriculture, as for energy, two decades of declining real prices have led to huge underinvestment that is now being revealed by relentless demand pressures. In 2008, the world's urban population equalled the rural for the first time in human history. China also became a net food importer for the first time ever. Overall, world food supply and demand remain precariously balanced. A variety of factors point to serious food shortages emerging over the next decade, with demand for food forecast to double over the next 25 years despite reduced availability of arable land and water. For the first time in history, urban demand for water is outpacing farm demand throughout the world and water tables are falling across key producing regions . Globally, we are losing about one per cent of productive land each year because of degradation and urban sprawl, notably in southern China.

and

Arable land per capita has essentially halved from 0.42 hectares per person in 1961 to 0.22 hectares per person now. Optimists expect innovation to bridge the gap, and it's possible that developments like genetic engineering and smart irrigation may boost productivity, but as international funding for agricultural research has been stagnant in real terms since the early 1970s , I wouldn't bet on it.

Be sure to visit www.personallettermarketing.com and hire us to write nice personal letters to your customers each month.

Scientific development and proven benefits to combat malnutrition

It was in 1975 in France that ALE was first discovered as having a nutritional composition fit for human consumption . In 1993 the Association for the Promotion of Leaf Extracts in Nutrition (APEF) was set up to validate the process of using chloroplast leaf extracts as nutritional supplements to combat chronic malnutrition. Cooperation with scientists from Reims University made it possible to conduct rigorous studies relating to the effectiveness and safety of ALE. Today APEF is present in more than 20 countries with more than 40 million daily doses already distributed i.e. 320 tons of extract in Africa and Latin America.

The organization of the Knights of Malta has supported this food supplement program and rigorously monitored the NGOs which distributed the extracts. Medical reports from local experts are unanimous in noting the fast improvement in health of the relevant individuals:

* Pregnant or nursing mothers and children after weaning;
* People suffering from malnutrition, even severely (of which kwashiorkor and stagnation);
* Patients with AIDS, malaria, leukaemia or tuberculosis;
* Elderly people.

The recommended doses are 5 to 10 gr per day for children and 10 to 15 gr per day for adults (annual cost being on average $6 per person per year), it gives the following effects:

For mothers

* Higher birth-weight for their children;
* An increased quantity of breast milk.

For children

* Easing of the delicate period of weaning;
* Appetite returns, weight increases;
* Speeding up of growth;
* Reduction and rapid disappearance of diarrhoea;
* Effectiveness against marasmus and kwashiorkor;
* Better response to education.

Generally

* Regression or elimination of anaemia in 3 months in more than 70% of cases;
* Diminished incidence and duration of ailments associated with malnutrition (infections of the upper respiratory system, the skin and eyes);
* Rapid improvement in several aspects of the blood picture, especially in the levels of haemoglobin (Iron) and of retinol (Vitamin A);
* Better resistance to infections, e.g. Noma in children;
* Improved general condition in cases of serious infections: tuberculosis, AIDS, etc.

A revolutionary food supplement to fight malnutrition

Over 2 billion people suffer from chronic malnutrition caused by dietary deficiencies in proteins, vitamins, trace elements and minerals, in particular vitamin A and iron.

ALE


* It is the leading cause of excess mortality, due to an individual’s greater vulnerability to infectious diseases, and can also bring about severe handicaps: for instance, a deficiency in vitamin A causes permanent blindness in 500,000 children each year
* Alfalfa leaf extract (ALE) food supplement is listed on a positive list as safe for the intended use by the US Food and Drug Administration (Title 21 - revised April 1, 2001). In addition, it can be produced in a very cost effective way, i.e. $3. per year for a child
* After more than 10 years of research and development, ALE has a proven track record in combating malnutrition. Investment in local production is required to build manufacturing plants in areas affected by malnutrition in order to reach all sufferers, especially children

The world faces “mass starvation” following North America’s next major crop failure. And it could even happen before year’s end. So says Chicago-based Don Coxe, who is one of the world’s leading experts on agricultural commodities, so much so that Canada’s renowned BMO Financial Group named the fund after him

ht commodity online

ht seeking alpha
As you walk by supermarket shelves stocked with loaves of bread and pasta, it seems hard to believe, but the world is currently experiencing a major wheat shortage. In the commodity markets, the shortage has helped drive the price of wheat to thirty year highs. According to the London-based International Grains Council, global wheat supplies in the year ending June 2008 will drop to their lowest levels in more than a quarter of a century. Meanwhile, the price of wheat is soaring. At the end of August, CBOT December wheat contracts hit a record high of $7.885 a bushel. Over in Europe, wheat for November delivery on the Euronext.liffe exchange reached 266.75 euros ($363) a ton in Paris. Prices for the contract closest to delivery have gained a whopping 75 percent this year alone.

As with most commodity price spikes, wheat prices are being affected by two dynamics: a shortage on the supply side and an increase on the demand side. Supplies have been hurt by droughts in Ukraine, Europe, Canada and Australia, which are four of the world's leading wheat producing. The U.S. is the world's #1 exporter, and U.S. farmers are churning away, exporting about 16.5m tons of wheat this year, almost double the amount they sold in the same period last year. However, a severe drought cut Australia's wheat crop last year to just 10 million tons, less than half the year before. Meanwhile, Ukraine, the world's eighth-biggest wheat exporter, is already cutting exports after drought cut its grain harvest to 30 million tons, its smallest since 2003. The country will ship 58 percent less grain this year, according to its Agricultural Ministry.[some areas suffer from drought, others from too much rain, or badly times precipitation]

While sellers have less wheat to sell, buyers keep coming in with more orders. That's especially true in traditional emerging economies such as Brazil and India, but demand is coming from some surprising places, like South Korea, and Egypt. Egypt bought 10 times more wheat last month than it did a year earlier, in anticipation of higher prices, according to the country's General Authority for Supply Commodities.[countries that know, have begun to stockpile and global stocks are very low]

There is a third factor affecting the global wheat market, and that is Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter of grain. Traders are speculating that the Russian government will step in and actively reduce shipments to control domestic food prices. According to Bloomberg News, Russia has created a ``working group'' to consider measures that may include export restrictions, duties and quotas. Kazakhstan also said it plans to introduce licenses for grain exports. The other part of the Russian wildcard is the country's elections, which take place next year. Russian President Vladimir Putin has to step down, and the USDA has said the election in Russia makes government policy, including possible tariffs or export regulations, less predictable than ever. [shame on churches that continue the useless building of new houses, when so many are available by foreclosure, and no mention of worldwide hunger!]

Bad news for wheat

The Ug99 fungus, called stem rust, could wipe out more than 80% of the world's wheat as it spreads from Africa, scientists fear. The race is on to breed resistant plants before it reaches the U.S.

The spores arrived from Kenya on dried, infected leaves ensconced in layers of envelopes.

Working inside a bio-secure greenhouse outfitted with motion detectors and surveillance cameras, government scientists at the Cereal Disease Laboratory in St. Paul, Minn., suspended the fungal spores in a light mineral oil and sprayed them onto thousands of healthy wheat plants. After two weeks, the stalks were covered with deadly reddish blisters characteristic of the scourge known as Ug99. ht

Nearly all the plants were goners.

Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads from eastern Africa. It has already jumped the Red Sea and traveled as far as Iran. Experts say it is poised to enter the breadbasket of northern India and Pakistan, and the wind will inevitably carry it to Russia, China and even North America -- if it doesn't hitch a ride with people first.

The world is still facing a global food crisis.

1) Argentine farmers will plant the country's smallest wheat crop in a hundred years this season.

2) Argentina may well become a net importer of wheat by 2010, with its ending stocks will be close to zero.

3) China continues to import soybeans at an astonishing rate with latest estimates showing that they imported almost 14 MMT in the first four month of 2009, with sales since Sept 1st 41% higher than a year ago.

4) With US soybean ending stocks already tight, we could be in for a very interesting summer.

5) World wheat output will fall by a minimum of around 42-46 MMT this year.

Conclusion: Everything is continuing as expected. Estimates for agricultural production are being continuously being downgraded every month. China’s stimulus efforts are sucking up the world’s soybean production. Argentina is still an ecological disaster. And the world is still facing food shortages in 2009.ht market skeptic

Rice is in the news. The price of rice is completely integrated with the health of the world and food security, and recent years have seen major swings in the wholesale rice of rice. Other news is in the recent interest in those crops that can live on brackish or salt water. And, remember that we have one of the lowest levels of stockpiled grain in decades. This is surely bad news.